Nürnberg U19 2–3 Unterhaching U19: Result & Stats

Nürnberg U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Unterhaching U19

T. Latteier 75'

A. Osmanoski 30' (OG)

T. Stockinger 80'

P. Schoch 77'

C. Ehlich 55'

10/15/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 8Sportpark Valznerweiher Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Nürnberg U1952%

×Draw21%

Unterhaching U1927%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nürnberg U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.55

Nürnberg U19

2.21

Unterhaching U19

1.55

Nürnberg U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 55 away

2.46

creates per match

1.33

1.77

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Nürnberg U19

2.46

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Nürnberg U19

1.77

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw

73%

Nürnberg U19 or Unterhaching U19

79%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

48%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

32%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

89%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

65%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

38%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

79%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

46%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 70 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.46 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.21

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more

52%

level

21%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

27%

Nürnberg U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

A. OsmanoskiOwn goal

46'

J. Scholz← E. Celebi

55'

C. Ehlich

65'

T. Stockinger← A. Osmanoski

70'

J. Sanchez← A. Freitag

75'

75'

77'

80'

82'

86'

90+1'

L. Demolli← A. Kaltner

Nürnberg

Unterhaching

Mantl

Wiedl

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Wimmer

46'▲J. Scholz←▼E. Celebi

70'▲J. Sanchez←▼A. Freitag

82'▲E. Hinz←▼M. Zietsch

Nürnberg U19 substitutes

ScholzSanchezHinzBajicResnitschenkoWagnerHofmann

Manager: S. Dreier

65'▲T. Stockinger←▼A. Osmanoski

75'▲P. Schoch←▼S. Süß

86'▲J. Othmer←▼C. Ehlich

90+1'▲L. Demolli←▼A. Kaltner

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

StockingerSchochOthmerDemolliKalchnerKappelsbergerPfister

Match Recap: Nürnberg U19 vs Unterhaching U19

Unterhaching U19 beat Nürnberg U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 15, 2017.

Goals: A. Osmanoski (30' o.g.), C. Ehlich (55'), T. Latteier (75'), P. Schoch (77'), T. Stockinger (80').

The match was played at Sportpark Valznerweiher Platz 3 in Nürnberg.

Nürnberg U19 vs Unterhaching U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nürnberg U19 vs Unterhaching U19