Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nürnberg U19 vs Sandhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Nürnberg U19
Nürnberg U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sandhausen U19
Sandhausen U19
11/11/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 11Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nürnberg U1955%
×Draw19%
Sandhausen U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nürnberg U19
2.48
Sandhausen U19
1.65

Nürnberg U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 38 away

creates per match

Nürnberg U19
2.50
Sandhausen U19
1.55

allows per match

Nürnberg U19
1.75
Sandhausen U19
2.45

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par
Sandhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Sandhausen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw
75%
Nürnberg U19 or Sandhausen U19
81%
Draw or Sandhausen U19
45%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+
35%
Sandhausen U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals
92%
Nürnberg U19 2+ goals
70%
Nürnberg U19 3+ goals
44%
Sandhausen U19 1+ goals
81%
Sandhausen U19 2+ goals
49%
Sandhausen U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Sandhausen U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

Sandhausen U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.50 + Sandhausen U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.48

Sandhausen U19 attack 1.55 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more
55%
level
19%
Sandhausen U19 scores more
25%

Nürnberg U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nürnberg U19 4 – 1 Sandhausen U19

Nürnberg U19 beat Sandhausen U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5 in Nürnberg.