Nürnberg U19 3–4 Paderborn U19: Result & Stats

Nürnberg U19

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Paderborn U19

3/29/2026

U19 Bundesliga · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Nürnberg U1943%

×Draw21%

Paderborn U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nürnberg U19Expected goals in this matchPaderborn U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.96

Nürnberg U19

2.12

Paderborn U19

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 60 away

2.46

creates per match

2.15

1.77

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Nürnberg U19

2.46

Paderborn U19

2.15

allows per match

Nürnberg U19

1.77

Paderborn U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw

63%

Nürnberg U19 or Paderborn U19

79%

Draw or Paderborn U19

57%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

24%

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

88%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

62%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

35%

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

86%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

58%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 70 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.46 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.12

Paderborn U19 attack 2.15 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more

43%

level

21%

Paderborn U19 scores more

37%

Nürnberg U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Nürnberg

Paderborn

Manager: M. These

Manager: I. Kalkan