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Nürnberg U19 vs Karlsruher SC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Nürnberg U19
Nürnberg U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karlsruher SC U19
Karlsruher SC U19
2/24/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 18Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Nürnberg U1947%
×Draw21%
Karlsruher SC U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nürnberg U19
2.10
Karlsruher SC U19
1.73

Nürnberg U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 71 away

creates per match

Nürnberg U19
2.50
Karlsruher SC U19
1.70

allows per match

Nürnberg U19
1.75
Karlsruher SC U19
1.70

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par
Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Karlsruher SC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw
68%
Nürnberg U19 or Karlsruher SC U19
79%
Draw or Karlsruher SC U19
53%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+
27%
Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals
88%
Nürnberg U19 2+ goals
62%
Nürnberg U19 3+ goals
35%
Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals
82%
Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals
52%
Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

Karlsruher SC U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.70 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.50 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.10

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 1.70 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more
47%
level
21%
Karlsruher SC U19 scores more
32%

Nürnberg U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Nürnberg U19 0–1 Karlsruher SC U19

Karlsruher SC U19 beat Nürnberg U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5 in Nürnberg.