Nürnberg U19 4–2 Kaiserslautern U19: Result & Stats

Nürnberg U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kaiserslautern U19

D. Koc 86'

L. Vonić 79'

S. Yiğit 68'

F. Ilic 8'

A. Stavridis 50', 11'

9/11/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 3Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Nürnberg U1952%

×Draw20%

Kaiserslautern U1928%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nürnberg U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.70

Nürnberg U19

2.36

Kaiserslautern U19

1.70

Nürnberg U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 68 away

2.46

creates per match

1.62

1.77

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Nürnberg U19

2.46

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Nürnberg U19

1.77

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw

72%

Nürnberg U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

80%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

48%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

32%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

90%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

68%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

41%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

82%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

51%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 70 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.46 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.36

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more

52%

level

20%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

28%

Nürnberg U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

11'

38'

46'

50'

57'

63'

68'

73'

73'

79'

86'

88'

L. Auer← M. Gundelach

Nürnberg

Kaiserslautern

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Wolf

46'▲D. Koc←▼M. Náprstek

63'▲Y. Tambo←▼B. Fischer

73'▲T. Huhnholz←▼N. Jahn

88'▲L. Auer←▼M. Gundelach

Nürnberg U19 substitutes

KocTamboHuhnholzAuerTomicBerschneiderGahlert

Manager: A. Bugera

38'▲M. Bauer←▼H. Werner

57'▲M. Ludwig←▼N. Lorenz

73'▲P. Petrica←▼D. Hoor

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

BauerLudwigPetricaColonOliveiraSeibHozlinger

Match Recap: Nürnberg U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19

Nürnberg U19 beat Kaiserslautern U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 11, 2021.

Goals: F. Ilic (8'), A. Stavridis (11', 50'), S. Yiğit (68'), L. Vonić (79'), D. Koc (86').

The match was played at Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5 in Nürnberg.

Nürnberg U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nürnberg U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19