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Nürnberg U19 vs Heidenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Nürnberg U19
Nürnberg U19
CANC
10:00
Heidenheim U19
Heidenheim U19
2/7/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 11Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Nürnberg U1946%
×Draw21%
Heidenheim U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nürnberg U19
2.04
Heidenheim U19
1.71

Nürnberg U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 71 away

creates per match

Nürnberg U19
2.50
Heidenheim U19
1.68

allows per match

Nürnberg U19
1.75
Heidenheim U19
1.58

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par
Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Heidenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw
67%
Nürnberg U19 or Heidenheim U19
79%
Draw or Heidenheim U19
54%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+
26%
Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals
87%
Nürnberg U19 2+ goals
60%
Nürnberg U19 3+ goals
33%
Heidenheim U19 1+ goals
82%
Heidenheim U19 2+ goals
51%
Heidenheim U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

Heidenheim U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.58 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.50 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.04

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.68 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more
46%
level
21%
Heidenheim U19 scores more
33%

Nürnberg U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nürnberg U19 vs Heidenheim U19 — Match Preview

Nürnberg U19 face Heidenheim U19 on February 7, 2021 in this U19 Bundesliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Nürnberg U19 host Heidenheim U19 at Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.