Nürnberg U19 4–1 Freiburg U19: Result & Stats

Nürnberg U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Freiburg U19

E. Shuranov 90', 75', 72', 30' (pen)

E. Kehrer 90+2' (pen)

9/26/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 2Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Nürnberg U1945%

×Draw21%

Freiburg U1934%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nürnberg U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.77

Nürnberg U19

2.08

Freiburg U19

1.77

Nürnberg U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 67 away

2.46

creates per match

1.76

1.77

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Nürnberg U19

2.46

Freiburg U19

1.76

allows per match

Nürnberg U19

1.77

Freiburg U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw

66%

Nürnberg U19 or Freiburg U19

79%

Draw or Freiburg U19

55%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

26%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

87%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

61%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

34%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

83%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

53%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 70 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.46 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.08

Freiburg U19 attack 1.76 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more

45%

level

21%

Freiburg U19 scores more

34%

Nürnberg U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

E. ShuranovPenalty

46'

D. Au Yeong← P. Fahrner

46'

F. Allgaier← R. Hinrichsen

52'

66'

72'

75'

76'

M. Wichmann← A. Bazdrigiannis

85'

J. Hofmann← D. Ismail

90+1'

J. Kussmann← E. Shuranov

90'

E. Shuranov

90+2'

E. KehrerPenalty

Nürnberg

Freiburg

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽4

▼

Shuranov

Manager: F. Adelmann

52'▲E. Baram←▼T. Kunert

66'▲E. Muteba←▼T. Turgut

85'▲J. Hofmann←▼D. Ismail

90+1'▲J. Kussmann←▼E. Shuranov

Nürnberg U19 substitutes

BaramMutebaHofmannKussmannYılmazMarquesVonić

Manager: T. Stamm

46'▲D. Au Yeong←▼P. Fahrner

46'▲F. Allgaier←▼R. Hinrichsen

76'▲M. Wichmann←▼A. Bazdrigiannis

Freiburg U19 substitutes

YeongAllgaierWichmannIbrahimMackBleiseIlczuk