Nürnberg U19 2–2 Darmstadt 98 U19: Result & Stats

Nürnberg U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Darmstadt 98 U19

L. Chiumento 22'

N. Üstel 14'

E. Smailji 56'

J. Volkmann 31'

8/3/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 1Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Nürnberg U1953%

×Draw20%

Darmstadt 98 U1927%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nürnberg U19Expected goals in this matchDarmstadt 98 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.67

Nürnberg U19

2.35

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.67

Nürnberg U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 48 away

2.46

creates per match

1.56

1.77

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Nürnberg U19

2.46

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.56

allows per match

Nürnberg U19

1.77

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw

73%

Nürnberg U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19

80%

Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19

47%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

32%

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

90%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

68%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

41%

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

81%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

50%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 70 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.46 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.35

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more

53%

level

20%

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

27%

Nürnberg U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

N. Üstel

22'

L. Chiumento

31'

J. Volkmann

55'

E. Smailji← L. Göttmann

55'

S. Kalberlah← K. Kunstmann

56'

E. Smailji

65'

K. Taye← N. Rutkowski

65'

P. Kraußold← L. Chiumento

65'

V. Straßer← E. Rau

66'

E. Karaj← M. Herbst

66'

M. Roth← J. Buchberger

77'

A. Utermann← J. Volkmann

77'

G. Hetemaj← L. Klappich

78'

80'

D. Okpodu← N. Üstel

Nürnberg

Darmstadt

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Chiumento

Manager: M. These

65'▲K. Taye←▼N. Rutkowski

65'▲P. Kraußold←▼L. Chiumento

65'▲V. Straßer←▼E. Rau

80'▲D. Okpodu←▼N. Üstel

Nürnberg U19 substitutes

TayeKraußoldStraßerOkpoduFischerTheinhardtZekirowski

Manager: P. Kurt

55'▲E. Smailji←▼L. Göttmann

55'▲S. Kalberlah←▼K. Kunstmann

66'▲E. Karaj←▼M. Herbst

66'▲M. Roth←▼J. Buchberger

77'▲A. Utermann←▼J. Volkmann

77'▲G. Hetemaj←▼L. Klappich

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

SmailjiKalberlahKarajRothUtermannHetemajAumann

Match Recap: Nürnberg U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19

Nürnberg U19 and Darmstadt 98 U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 3, 2024.

Goals: N. Üstel (14'), L. Chiumento (22'), J. Volkmann (31'), E. Smailji (56').

The match was played at Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5 in Nürnberg.

Nürnberg U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nürnberg U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19