Nürnberg U19 4–1 Astoria Walldorf U19

Nürnberg U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Astoria Walldorf U19

C. Uzun 84', 42', 32'

P. Fuchs 66'

I. Okwubor 85'

2/19/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 14Sportanlage Nürnberg Valznerweiher Kunstrasenplatz 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Nürnberg U1956%

×Draw20%

Astoria Walldorf U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nürnberg U19Expected goals in this matchAstoria Walldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.50

Nürnberg U19

2.33

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.50

Nürnberg U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 23 away

2.50

creates per match

1.26

1.75

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Nürnberg U19

2.50

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.26

allows per match

Nürnberg U19

1.75

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Astoria Walldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw

76%

Nürnberg U19 or Astoria Walldorf U19

80%

Draw or Astoria Walldorf U19

44%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

35%

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

90%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

67%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

41%

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

78%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

44%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

Astoria Walldorf U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.50 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.26 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more

56%

level

20%

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

24%

Nürnberg U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

42'

46'

57'

57'

M. Agostinelli← D. Forkel

59'

B. Jautz← L. Marx

59'

I. Okwubor← F. Wagner

66'

D. Koc← P. Fuchs

66'

F. Ilic← S. Ikene

66'

L. Stockinger← C. Irigoyen

66'

P. Fuchs

70'

A. Dönmez← E. Bulut

70'

M. Pignotti← L. Kritter

84'

C. Uzun

85'

I. Okwubor

Nürnberg

Astoria

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

Manager: A. Wolf

57'▲B. Fischer←▼L. Auer

57'▲M. Agostinelli←▼D. Forkel

66'▲D. Koc←▼P. Fuchs

66'▲F. Ilic←▼S. Ikene

66'▲L. Stockinger←▼C. Irigoyen

Nürnberg U19 substitutes

FischerAgostinelliKocIlicStockingerKarakayaHerger

Manager: Roberto Pinto

46'▲A. Korotko←▼T. Bauer

59'▲B. Jautz←▼L. Marx

59'▲I. Okwubor←▼F. Wagner

70'▲A. Dönmez←▼E. Bulut

70'▲M. Pignotti←▼L. Kritter

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

KorotkoJautzOkwuborDönmezPignottiVonierEbert

Match Recap: Nürnberg U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19

Nürnberg U19 beat Astoria Walldorf U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 19, 2023.

Goals: C. Uzun (32', 42', 84'), P. Fuchs (66'), I. Okwubor (85').

The match was played at Sportanlage Nürnberg Valznerweiher Kunstrasenplatz 8 in Nürnberg.

Nürnberg U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nürnberg U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19