Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nürnberg U19 vs 1860 München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Nürnberg U19
Nürnberg U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
1860 München U19
1860 München U19
2/10/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Nürnberg U1950%
×Draw20%
1860 München U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nürnberg U19
2.29
1860 München U19
1.73

Nürnberg U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 48 away

creates per match

Nürnberg U19
2.50
1860 München U19
1.71

allows per match

Nürnberg U19
1.75
1860 München U19
2.08

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par
1860 München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

1860 München U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw
71%
Nürnberg U19 or 1860 München U19
80%
Draw or 1860 München U19
50%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+
30%
1860 München U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals
90%
Nürnberg U19 2+ goals
66%
Nürnberg U19 3+ goals
40%
1860 München U19 1+ goals
82%
1860 München U19 2+ goals
52%
1860 München U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)
63%
1860 München U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

1860 München U19 away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.50 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.29

1860 München U19 attack 1.71 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more
50%
level
20%
1860 München U19 scores more
29%

Nürnberg U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nürnberg U19 vs 1860 München U19

1860 München U19 beat Nürnberg U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5 in Nürnberg.