Nürnberg II 8–1 Buchbach: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nürnberg IIExpected goals in this matchBuchbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.15

Nürnberg II

2.01

Buchbach

1.15

Nürnberg II creates 75% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 86 away

2.26

creates per match

1.06

1.24

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Nürnberg II

2.26

Buchbach

1.06

allows per match

Nürnberg II

1.24

Buchbach

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nürnberg II+0.00on par

Buchbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg II ↓

Buchbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Nürnberg II or draw

79%

Nürnberg II or Buchbach

78%

Draw or Buchbach

43%

Winning margin

Nürnberg II wins by 2+

34%

Buchbach wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nürnberg II 1+ goals

87%

Nürnberg II 2+ goals

59%

Nürnberg II 3+ goals

32%

Buchbach 1+ goals

68%

Buchbach 2+ goals

32%

Buchbach 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg II (draw refunded)

73%

Buchbach (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Buchbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.77 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg II attack 2.26 + Buchbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.01

Buchbach attack 1.06 + Nürnberg II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nürnberg II scores more

57%

level

22%

Buchbach scores more

21%

Nürnberg II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nürnberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

22'

31'

34'

47'

66'

71'

76'

82'

Nürnberg

Buchbach

Manager: A. Wolf

Manager: A. Petrović