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Nürnberg II vs Borussia Dortmund II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Borussia Dortmund II
Borussia Dortmund II
1/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nürnberg II50%
×Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nürnberg II
1.95
Borussia Dortmund II
1.39

Nürnberg II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Nürnberg II
2.33
Borussia Dortmund II
1.56

allows per match

Nürnberg II
1.22
Borussia Dortmund II
1.56

finishing

Nürnberg II+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg II ↓

Borussia Dortmund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Nürnberg II or draw
73%
Nürnberg II or Borussia Dortmund II
78%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund II
50%

Winning margin

Nürnberg II wins by 2+
29%
Borussia Dortmund II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nürnberg II 1+ goals
86%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
58%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
31%
Borussia Dortmund II 1+ goals
75%
Borussia Dortmund II 2+ goals
40%
Borussia Dortmund II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
65%
Borussia Dortmund II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg II at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Borussia Dortmund II away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg II attack 2.33 + Borussia Dortmund II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.95

Borussia Dortmund II attack 1.56 + Nürnberg II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nürnberg II scores more
50%
level
22%
Borussia Dortmund II scores more
27%

Nürnberg II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nürnberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Nürnberg II 3–3 Borussia Dortmund II

Nürnberg II and Borussia Dortmund II drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2026.