Nur-Batken 3–1 Neftchi: Result & Stats

Nur-Batken

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Neftchi

10/31/2022

Premier League · Round 25Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nur-Batken38%

×Draw27%

Neftchi34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nur-BatkenExpected goals in this matchNeftchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.19

Nur-Batken

1.27

Neftchi

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 94 away

1.20

creates per match

1.37

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Nur-Batken

1.20

Neftchi

1.37

allows per match

Nur-Batken

1.00

Neftchi

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nur-Batken+0.00on par

Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nur-Batken ↓

Neftchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nur-Batken or draw

66%

Nur-Batken or Neftchi

73%

Draw or Neftchi

62%

Winning margin

Nur-Batken wins by 2+

17%

Neftchi wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nur-Batken 1+ goals

72%

Nur-Batken 2+ goals

36%

Nur-Batken 3+ goals

14%

Neftchi 1+ goals

70%

Neftchi 2+ goals

33%

Neftchi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nur-Batken (draw refunded)

53%

Neftchi (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nur-Batken at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.33 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nur-Batken attack 1.20 + Neftchi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Neftchi attack 1.37 + Nur-Batken defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nur-Batken scores more

38%

level

27%

Neftchi scores more

34%

Nur-Batken at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nur-Batken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff