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Nur-Batken vs Alay — Premier League 2019

Nur-Batken
Nur-Batken
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Alay
Alay
7/18/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Stadion Central'nyj Batken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nur-Batken33%
×Draw28%
Alay40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nur-Batken
1.13
Alay
1.27

Alay creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 95 away

creates per match

Nur-Batken
1.20
Alay
1.54

allows per match

Nur-Batken
1.00
Alay
1.06

finishing

Nur-Batken+0.00on par
Alay+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nur-Batken ↓

Alay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nur-Batken or draw
60%
Nur-Batken or Alay
72%
Draw or Alay
67%

Winning margin

Nur-Batken wins by 2+
13%
Alay wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nur-Batken 1+ goals
68%
Nur-Batken 2+ goals
31%
Nur-Batken 3+ goals
11%
Alay 1+ goals
72%
Alay 2+ goals
36%
Alay 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nur-Batken (draw refunded)
45%
Alay (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nur-Batken at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Alay away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.06 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nur-Batken attack 1.20 + Alay defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Alay attack 1.54 + Nur-Batken defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nur-Batken scores more
33%
level
28%
Alay scores more
40%

Alay at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nur-Batken 0–4 Alay

Alay beat Nur-Batken 4-0 in Premier League on July 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj Batken in Batken.