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NuPS II vs PPS / Old Stars — Suomen Cup 2018

NuPS II
NuPS II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
PPS / Old Stars
PPS / Old Stars
4/23/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundCertos Areena halli TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

NuPS II43%
×Draw18%
PPS / Old Stars38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NuPS II
2.83
PPS / Old Stars
2.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

NuPS II
4.00
PPS / Old Stars
4.67

allows per match

NuPS II
0.67
PPS / Old Stars
1.67

finishing

NuPS II+0.00on par
PPS / Old Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NuPS II ↓

PPS / Old Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

NuPS II or draw
62%
NuPS II or PPS / Old Stars
82%
Draw or PPS / Old Stars
57%

Winning margin

NuPS II wins by 2+
26%
PPS / Old Stars wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

NuPS II 1+ goals
94%
NuPS II 2+ goals
77%
NuPS II 3+ goals
53%
PPS / Old Stars 1+ goals
93%
PPS / Old Stars 2+ goals
74%
PPS / Old Stars 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

NuPS II (draw refunded)
53%
PPS / Old Stars (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NuPS II at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

PPS / Old Stars away — creates 4.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NuPS II attack 4.00 + PPS / Old Stars defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

PPS / Old Stars attack 4.67 + NuPS II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

NuPS II scores more
43%
level
18%
PPS / Old Stars scores more
38%

NuPS II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "NuPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NuPS II vs PPS / Old Stars

NuPS II beat PPS / Old Stars 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 23, 2024.

The match was played at Certos Areena halli TN in Vihti.