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NuPS II vs KoiPS — Suomen Cup 2018

NuPS II
NuPS II
FT
6 – 0
KoiPS
KoiPS
4/4/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundCertos Areena halli TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

NuPS II67%
×Draw16%
KoiPS17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NuPS II
3.00
KoiPS
1.50

NuPS II creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

NuPS II
4.00
KoiPS
2.33

allows per match

NuPS II
0.67
KoiPS
2.00

finishing

NuPS II+0.00on par
KoiPS+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NuPS II ↓

KoiPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

NuPS II or draw
83%
NuPS II or KoiPS
84%
Draw or KoiPS
33%

Winning margin

NuPS II wins by 2+
47%
KoiPS wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

NuPS II 1+ goals
95%
NuPS II 2+ goals
79%
NuPS II 3+ goals
56%
KoiPS 1+ goals
78%
KoiPS 2+ goals
44%
KoiPS 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

NuPS II (draw refunded)
80%
KoiPS (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NuPS II at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

KoiPS away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NuPS II attack 4.00 + KoiPS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

KoiPS attack 2.33 + NuPS II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

NuPS II scores more
67%
level
16%
KoiPS scores more
17%

NuPS II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "NuPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NuPS II 6 – 0 KoiPS

NuPS II beat KoiPS 6-0 in Suomen Cup on April 4, 2024.

The match was played at Certos Areena halli TN in Vihti.