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Nuova Cosenza vs Venezia — Serie B 2018

Nuova Cosenza
Nuova Cosenza
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Venezia
Venezia
5/6/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 36Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Nuova Cosenza33%
×Draw29%
Venezia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nuova Cosenza
1.06
Venezia
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 118 away

creates per match

Nuova Cosenza
1.06
Venezia
1.22

allows per match

Nuova Cosenza
1.07
Venezia
1.07

finishing

Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par
Venezia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nuova Cosenza ↓

Venezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nuova Cosenza or draw
62%
Nuova Cosenza or Venezia
71%
Draw or Venezia
67%

Winning margin

Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+
13%
Venezia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals
65%
Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals
29%
Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals
9%
Venezia 1+ goals
68%
Venezia 2+ goals
32%
Venezia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)
47%
Venezia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nuova Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Venezia away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nuova Cosenza attack 1.06 + Venezia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Venezia attack 1.22 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nuova Cosenza scores more
33%
level
29%
Venezia scores more
38%

Venezia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Nuova Cosenza 1–1 Venezia

Nuova Cosenza and Venezia drew 1-1 in Serie B on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Cosenza.