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Nuova Cosenza vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Nuova Cosenza
Nuova Cosenza
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Pescara
Pescara
5/1/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 35Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Nuova Cosenza46%
×Draw27%
Pescara27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nuova Cosenza
1.41
Pescara
1.02

Nuova Cosenza creates 38% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 75 away

creates per match

Nuova Cosenza
1.06
Pescara
0.97

allows per match

Nuova Cosenza
1.07
Pescara
1.76

finishing

Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par
Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nuova Cosenza ↓

Pescara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nuova Cosenza or draw
73%
Nuova Cosenza or Pescara
73%
Draw or Pescara
54%

Winning margin

Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+
22%
Pescara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals
76%
Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals
41%
Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals
17%
Pescara 1+ goals
64%
Pescara 2+ goals
27%
Pescara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)
63%
Pescara (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nuova Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Pescara away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.76 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nuova Cosenza attack 1.06 + Pescara defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.41

Pescara attack 0.97 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nuova Cosenza scores more
46%
level
27%
Pescara scores more
27%

Nuova Cosenza at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nuova Cosenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Nuova Cosenza 3–0 Pescara

Nuova Cosenza beat Pescara 3-0 in Serie B on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Cosenza.