Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nuova Cosenza vs Juve Stabia — Serie B 2018

Nuova Cosenza
Nuova Cosenza
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
7/31/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 38Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Nuova Cosenza43%
×Draw28%
Juve Stabia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nuova Cosenza
1.29
Juve Stabia
1.00

Nuova Cosenza creates 29% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 60 away

creates per match

Nuova Cosenza
1.06
Juve Stabia
0.92

allows per match

Nuova Cosenza
1.07
Juve Stabia
1.53

finishing

Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par
Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nuova Cosenza ↓

Juve Stabia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nuova Cosenza or draw
71%
Nuova Cosenza or Juve Stabia
72%
Draw or Juve Stabia
57%

Winning margin

Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+
20%
Juve Stabia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals
72%
Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals
37%
Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals
14%
Juve Stabia 1+ goals
63%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
26%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)
60%
Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nuova Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nuova Cosenza attack 1.06 + Juve Stabia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Juve Stabia attack 0.92 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nuova Cosenza scores more
43%
level
28%
Juve Stabia scores more
29%

Nuova Cosenza at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nuova Cosenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Nuova Cosenza 3–1 Juve Stabia

Nuova Cosenza beat Juve Stabia 3-1 in Serie B on July 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Cosenza.