Nuova Cosenza 0–1 Crotone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Nuova Cosenza

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Crotone

1/20/2020

Serie B · Round 20Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Nuova Cosenza41%

×Draw28%

Crotone31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nuova CosenzaExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.10

Nuova Cosenza

1.30

Crotone

1.10

Nuova Cosenza creates 18% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 56 away

1.06

creates per match

1.14

1.07

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Nuova Cosenza

1.06

Crotone

1.14

allows per match

Nuova Cosenza

1.07

Crotone

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nuova Cosenza ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nuova Cosenza or draw

69%

Nuova Cosenza or Crotone

72%

Draw or Crotone

59%

Winning margin

Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+

19%

Crotone wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals

73%

Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals

37%

Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals

14%

Crotone 1+ goals

67%

Crotone 2+ goals

30%

Crotone 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)

57%

Crotone (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nuova Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nuova Cosenza attack 1.06 + Crotone defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.30

Crotone attack 1.14 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nuova Cosenza scores more

41%

level

28%

Crotone scores more

31%

Nuova Cosenza at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nuova Cosenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff