Nuova Cosenza 1–0 Benevento: Result & Stats

Nuova Cosenza

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Benevento

M. Camporese 87'

4/14/2022

Serie B · Round 28Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Nuova Cosenza33%

×Draw29%

Benevento38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nuova CosenzaExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.16

Nuova Cosenza

1.06

Benevento

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 79 away

1.06

creates per match

1.24

1.07

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Nuova Cosenza

1.06

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Nuova Cosenza

1.07

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nuova Cosenza ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nuova Cosenza or draw

62%

Nuova Cosenza or Benevento

71%

Draw or Benevento

67%

Winning margin

Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+

13%

Benevento wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals

65%

Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals

29%

Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals

9%

Benevento 1+ goals

69%

Benevento 2+ goals

32%

Benevento 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)

46%

Benevento (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nuova Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nuova Cosenza attack 1.06 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Benevento attack 1.24 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nuova Cosenza scores more

33%

level

29%

Benevento scores more

38%

Benevento at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

M. Camporese

Nuova Cosenza · D

8.2

Match Events

30'

Salvatore Elia

34'

Joaquín Larrivey

63'

R. Kongolo← A. Gerbo

64'

A. Tello← Diego Farias

72'

G. Moncini← S. Elia

73'

L. Pandolfi← J. Larrivey

84'

E. Brignola← A. Ioniţă

87'

M. Camporese↳ A. Florenzi

90+1'

M. Zilli← G. Caso

90'

D. Liotti← A. Di Pardo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NuovaBenevento

Overview

37%Possession63%

7Total Shots16

3Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots16

3On Target5

3Off Target6

1Blocked5

4Inside Box7

3Outside Box9

Passing

37%Possession63%

324Total Passes558

227Accurate Passes454

70%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4