Nuneaton Town 2–2 Halesowen Town: Result & Stats

Nuneaton Town

2 – 2

Halesowen Town

7/3/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nuneaton Town12%

×Draw14%

Halesowen Town74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nuneaton TownExpected goals in this matchHalesowen Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

3.17

Nuneaton Town

1.23

Halesowen Town

3.17

Halesowen Town creates 158% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

0.80

creates per match

2.33

4.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Nuneaton Town

0.80

Halesowen Town

2.33

allows per match

Nuneaton Town

4.00

Halesowen Town

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nuneaton Town+0.00on par

Halesowen Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nuneaton Town ↓

Halesowen Town →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–37%

0–45%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Nuneaton Town or draw

26%

Nuneaton Town or Halesowen Town

86%

Draw or Halesowen Town

88%

Winning margin

Nuneaton Town wins by 2+

Halesowen Town wins by 2+

55%

Team goals

Nuneaton Town 1+ goals

71%

Nuneaton Town 2+ goals

35%

Nuneaton Town 3+ goals

13%

Halesowen Town 1+ goals

96%

Halesowen Town 2+ goals

82%

Halesowen Town 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Nuneaton Town (draw refunded)

14%

Halesowen Town (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nuneaton Town at home — creates 0.80, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

Halesowen Town away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nuneaton Town attack 0.80 + Halesowen Town defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Halesowen Town attack 2.33 + Nuneaton Town defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Nuneaton Town scores more

12%

level

14%

Halesowen Town scores more

74%

Halesowen Town at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Halesowen Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff