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Nuneaton Town vs Burton Albion — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Nuneaton Town
Nuneaton Town
FT
1 – 3
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
7/6/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Liberty Way

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nuneaton Town6%
×Draw12%
Burton Albion82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nuneaton Town
0.74
Burton Albion
3.00

Burton Albion creates 305% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Nuneaton Town
0.80
Burton Albion
2.00

allows per match

Nuneaton Town
4.00
Burton Albion
0.67

finishing

Nuneaton Town+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nuneaton Town ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–211%
0–311%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Nuneaton Town or draw
18%
Nuneaton Town or Burton Albion
88%
Draw or Burton Albion
94%

Winning margin

Nuneaton Town wins by 2+
2%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Nuneaton Town 1+ goals
52%
Nuneaton Town 2+ goals
17%
Nuneaton Town 3+ goals
4%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
95%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
79%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Nuneaton Town (draw refunded)
7%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nuneaton Town at home — creates 0.80, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nuneaton Town attack 0.80 + Burton Albion defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Burton Albion attack 2.00 + Nuneaton Town defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Nuneaton Town scores more
6%
level
12%
Burton Albion scores more
82%

Burton Albion at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nuneaton Town 1 – 3 Burton Albion

Burton Albion beat Nuneaton Town 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2021.

The match was played at Liberty Way in Nuneaton, Warwickshire.