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Numancia vs SD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Numancia
Numancia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
4/30/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Numancia41%
×Draw29%
SD Logroñés29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia
1.18
SD Logroñés
0.95

Numancia creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

Numancia
1.00
SD Logroñés
0.90

allows per match

Numancia
1.00
SD Logroñés
1.35

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par
SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

SD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Numancia or draw
71%
Numancia or SD Logroñés
71%
Draw or SD Logroñés
59%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+
18%
SD Logroñés wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals
69%
Numancia 2+ goals
33%
Numancia 3+ goals
12%
SD Logroñés 1+ goals
61%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
25%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)
58%
SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.00 + SD Logroñés defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

SD Logroñés attack 0.90 + Numancia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Numancia scores more
41%
level
29%
SD Logroñés scores more
29%

Numancia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Numancia vs SD Logroñés

SD Logroñés beat Numancia 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in Soria.