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Numancia vs Reus — Segunda División 2018

Numancia
Numancia
FT
1 – 0
Reus
Reus
5/25/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 40Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos (Soria)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Numancia51%
×Draw31%
Reus19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia
1.20
Reus
0.60

Numancia creates 100% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 21 away

creates per match

Numancia
1.29
Reus
0.38

allows per match

Numancia
0.83
Reus
1.10

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Numancia or draw
81%
Numancia or Reus
69%
Draw or Reus
49%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+
23%
Reus wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals
70%
Numancia 2+ goals
34%
Numancia 3+ goals
12%
Reus 1+ goals
45%
Reus 2+ goals
12%
Reus 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)
73%
Reus (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Reus away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.29 + Reus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Reus attack 0.38 + Numancia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Numancia scores more
51%
level
31%
Reus scores more
19%

Numancia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Numancia 1–0 Reus

Numancia beat Reus 1-0 in Segunda División on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos (Soria).