Numancia 0–2 Real Unión: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Unión

Nacho Sánchez 84'

G. Gagua 71'

12/4/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Numancia37%

×Draw30%

Real Unión32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.98

Numancia

1.07

Real Unión

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 46 away

1.00

creates per match

0.96

1.00

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Numancia

1.00

Real Unión

0.96

allows per match

Numancia

1.00

Real Unión

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

68%

Numancia or Real Unión

70%

Draw or Real Unión

63%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

15%

Real Unión wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

66%

Numancia 2+ goals

29%

Numancia 3+ goals

9%

Real Unión 1+ goals

62%

Real Unión 2+ goals

26%

Real Unión 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

53%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.00 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Numancia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Numancia scores more

37%

level

30%

Real Unión scores more

32%

Numancia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Fer Román← Julián Mahicas

59'

Jordi Tur← Antonio Cotán

61'

Alain Oyarzun← Julián Luque

67'

G. Gagua

69'

Carlos Bravo← Chema Núñez

71'

G. Gagua

74'

Jorge Valín← Borja San Emeterio

81'

Jesús Carrillo← Adrián Mance

84'

Nacho Sánchez

88'

Julen Aguirre← G. Gagua

Numancia

Real

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Iñaki Bea

59'▲Fer Román←▼Julián Mahicas

59'▲Jordi Tur←▼Antonio Cotán

74'▲Jorge Valín←▼Borja San Emeterio

81'▲Jesús Carrillo←▼Adrián Mance

Numancia substitutes

RománTurValínCarrilloGilPolGarcíaVicario

Manager: Iñaki Goikoetxea

61'▲Alain Oyarzun←▼Julián Luque

69'▲Carlos Bravo←▼Chema Núñez

88'▲Julen Aguirre←▼G. Gagua

Real Unión substitutes

OyarzunBravoAguirreJasoIzaJiménezAzkueCapeleteParada