Numancia 1–2 Real Oviedo II: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Oviedo II

Jony 89'

J. Delgado 60'

C. Gutierrez 39' (OG)

1/4/2026

League #875 · Group 1 - 17Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Numancia53%

×Draw28%

Real Oviedo II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchReal Oviedo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.71

Numancia

1.40

Real Oviedo II

0.71

Numancia creates 97% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

0.73

0.70

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Numancia

1.60

Real Oviedo II

0.73

allows per match

Numancia

0.70

Real Oviedo II

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Real Oviedo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

81%

Numancia or Real Oviedo II

72%

Draw or Real Oviedo II

47%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

27%

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

75%

Numancia 2+ goals

41%

Numancia 3+ goals

17%

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

51%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

16%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

74%

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.60 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Oviedo II attack 0.73 + Numancia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Numancia scores more

53%

level

28%

Real Oviedo II scores more

19%

Numancia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

C. GutierrezOwn goal

60'

J. Delgado

62'

D. Menendez

89'

Jony

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff