Numancia vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Numancia32%
Real Murcia38%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Real Murcia creates 11% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 76 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Numancia ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Numancia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches
Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Numancia attack 1.00 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98
Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Numancia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Real Murcia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Eldense
Sabadell
Atlético Madrid II
Villarreal II
Europa Fc
FC Cartagena
Antequera
Algeciras
HérculesReal Murcia
Alcorcon
Ibiza
Teruel
Gimnastic
Juventud Torremolinos
Tarazona
Real Betis II
Marbella
Sanluqueño
Sevilla AtleticoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Numancia host Real Murcia on Sunday, 26 March 2023 at 10:00. The match is part of the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Numancia vs Real Murcia
Numancia and Real Murcia drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 26, 2023.
Goals: Arnau Ortiz (39'), Jesús Tamayo (73').
The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in Soria.