Numancia 1–3 Osasuna II: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

1 – 3

Osasuna II

7/31/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Numancia33%

×Draw26%

Osasuna II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchOsasuna II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.38

Numancia

1.21

Osasuna II

1.38

Osasuna II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.75

1.00

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Numancia

1.67

Osasuna II

1.75

allows per match

Numancia

1.00

Osasuna II

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Osasuna II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

59%

Numancia or Osasuna II

74%

Draw or Osasuna II

67%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

14%

Osasuna II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

70%

Numancia 2+ goals

34%

Numancia 3+ goals

12%

Osasuna II 1+ goals

75%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

40%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

45%

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.67 + Osasuna II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Osasuna II attack 1.75 + Numancia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Numancia scores more

33%

level

26%

Osasuna II scores more

41%

Osasuna II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff