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Numancia vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Numancia
Numancia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mallorca
Mallorca
Joan Sastre 7' (OG)
Salva Sevilla 90'
4/14/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 34Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Numancia40%
×Draw31%
Mallorca28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia
1.07
Mallorca
0.85

Numancia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 45 away

creates per match

Numancia
1.24
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Numancia
0.78
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Numancia or draw
72%
Numancia or Mallorca
69%
Draw or Mallorca
60%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+
16%
Mallorca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals
66%
Numancia 2+ goals
29%
Numancia 3+ goals
9%
Mallorca 1+ goals
57%
Mallorca 2+ goals
21%
Mallorca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)
59%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.24 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.07

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Numancia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Numancia scores more
40%
level
31%
Mallorca scores more
28%

Numancia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Salva SevillaMallorcaMallorca · M
7.7

Match Events

7'
Joan SastreOwn goal
33'
Gus Ledes
57'
Salvador Ruiz
59'
Pedraza
60'
Abdón Prats← Marc Pedraza
62'
Dani Rodriguez
72'
L. Suárez← Ariday Cabrera
74'
Y. Yeboah← Higinio Marín
80'
Fran Gámez← Salva Ruiz
84'
Ante Budimir
88'
Alejandro Sanz← David Rodríguez
90'
Francisco Villalba
90+2'
Luis Valcarce← Fran Villalba
90'
Salva Sevilla

Possession

48%Numancia

Shots

5Numancia

Pass accuracy

50%Numancia

Statistics

NumanciaMallorca
Overview
48%Possession52%
5Total Shots8
1Corners6
15Fouls15
Shots
5Total Shots8
2On Target2
2Off Target6
1Blocked0
3Inside Box5
2Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
360Total Passes363
281Accurate Passes283
78%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Numancia vs Mallorca

Numancia and Mallorca drew 1-1 in Segunda División on April 14, 2019.

Goals: Joan Sastre (7' o.g.), Salva Sevilla (90').

Mallorca controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 5.

The match was played at Los Pajaritos in Soria.