Numancia 3–1 Lugo: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lugo

Guillermo Fernández 81'

Curro Sánchez 49' (pen), 25'

Álex Sola 13' (OG)

10/26/2019

Segunda División · Round 13Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Numancia49%

×Draw28%

Lugo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchLugo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.80

Numancia

1.34

Lugo

0.80

Numancia creates 68% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 107 away

1.24

creates per match

0.82

0.78

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Numancia

1.24

Lugo

0.82

allows per match

Numancia

0.78

Lugo

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Lugo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

78%

Numancia or Lugo

72%

Draw or Lugo

51%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

24%

Lugo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

74%

Numancia 2+ goals

39%

Numancia 3+ goals

15%

Lugo 1+ goals

55%

Lugo 2+ goals

19%

Lugo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

69%

Lugo (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.45 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.24 + Lugo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lugo attack 0.82 + Numancia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Numancia scores more

49%

level

28%

Lugo scores more

22%

Numancia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Curro Sánchez

Numancia · M

9.6

Match Events

13'

Álex SolaOwn goal

25'

Curro Sánchez↳ Higinio Marín

36'

Higinio

47'

Mathieu Peybernes

49'

Curro SánchezPenalty

50'

José Carlos Ramírez

56'

Manu Barreiro

64'

Gerard Valentín← Fernando Seoane

66'

Kako Sanz← Otegui

67'

Carlos Gutiérrez

77'

Guillermo Fernández← Higinio Marín

81'

Guillermo Fernández↳ Marc Mateu

82'

Carlos Castro← Edu Campabadal

85'

Nacho← Marc Mateu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NumanciaLugo

Overview

41%Possession59%

23Total Shots11

7Corners6

12Fouls14

Shots

23Total Shots11

10On Target3

10Off Target5

3Blocked3

13Inside Box7

10Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

292Total Passes401

225Accurate Passes332

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

5Offsides0

Segunda División: Numancia 3–1 Lugo

Numancia beat Lugo 3-1 in Segunda División on October 26, 2019.

Goals: Álex Sola (13' o.g.), Curro Sánchez (25', 49' pen), Guillermo Fernández (81').

Lugo controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 23.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in Soria.

Numancia vs Lugo — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Numancia 3–1 Lugo