Numancia 0–1 Lealtad: Result & Stats | League #875

Numancia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lealtad

J. Alvarez 29'

2/1/2026

League #875 · Group 1 - 21Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Numancia62%

×Draw23%

Lealtad15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchLealtad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.70

Numancia

1.73

Lealtad

0.70

Numancia creates 147% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

0.71

0.70

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Numancia

1.60

Lealtad

0.71

allows per match

Numancia

0.70

Lealtad

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Lealtad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

85%

Numancia or Lealtad

77%

Draw or Lealtad

38%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

35%

Lealtad wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

82%

Numancia 2+ goals

52%

Numancia 3+ goals

25%

Lealtad 1+ goals

50%

Lealtad 2+ goals

16%

Lealtad 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

81%

Lealtad (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Lealtad away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.60 + Lealtad defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lealtad attack 0.71 + Numancia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Numancia scores more

62%

level

23%

Lealtad scores more

15%

Numancia at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

J. Alvarez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff