Numancia 1–0 Langreo: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Langreo

Tony Gabarre 31'

12/12/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Numancia60%

×Draw24%

Langreo17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchLangreo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.77

Numancia

1.71

Langreo

0.77

Numancia creates 122% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 27 away

2.00

creates per match

0.78

0.75

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Numancia

2.00

Langreo

0.78

allows per match

Numancia

0.75

Langreo

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Langreo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Langreo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

83%

Numancia or Langreo

76%

Draw or Langreo

40%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

34%

Langreo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

82%

Numancia 2+ goals

51%

Numancia 3+ goals

24%

Langreo 1+ goals

54%

Langreo 2+ goals

18%

Langreo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

78%

Langreo (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Langreo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 2.00 + Langreo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Langreo attack 0.78 + Numancia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Numancia scores more

60%

level

24%

Langreo scores more

17%

Numancia at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Tony Gabarre

46'

Jesús Tamayo← José Fran

64'

Allyson← Xurde Méndez

71'

David Castro← Asier Benito

73'

V. De Baunbag← David Fernández

89'

Óscar De Frutos← Roberto Corral

90+1'

Diego Cámara← Lillo

Numancia

Langreo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Manix Mandiola

46'▲Jesús Tamayo←▼José Fran

71'▲David Castro←▼Asier Benito

89'▲Óscar De Frutos←▼Roberto Corral

90+1'▲Diego Cámara←▼Lillo

Numancia substitutes

TamayoCastroFrutosCámaraBikoroSanhajiJaraTraver

Manager: Ángel Rodríguez

64'▲Allyson←▼Xurde Méndez

73'▲V. De Baunbag←▼David Fernández

Langreo substitutes

AllysonBaunbagBretonesStamboulidisEbeaDennisShinMvondoToquero