Langreo 1–1 Numancia: Result & Stats

Langreo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Numancia

Álvaro Muñiz 90'

M. Sanhaji 42'

3/13/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Langreo38%

×Draw31%

Numancia31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LangreoExpected goals in this matchNumancia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.92

Langreo

1.05

Numancia

0.92

Langreo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

1.28

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Langreo

1.28

Numancia

0.83

allows per match

Langreo

1.00

Numancia

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Langreo+0.00on par

Numancia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo ↓

Numancia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Langreo or draw

69%

Langreo or Numancia

69%

Draw or Numancia

62%

Winning margin

Langreo wins by 2+

15%

Numancia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Langreo 1+ goals

65%

Langreo 2+ goals

28%

Langreo 3+ goals

9%

Numancia 1+ goals

60%

Numancia 2+ goals

23%

Numancia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Langreo (draw refunded)

55%

Numancia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langreo at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Numancia away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langreo attack 1.28 + Numancia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

Numancia attack 0.83 + Langreo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Langreo scores more

38%

level

31%

Numancia scores more

31%

Langreo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Langreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

M. Sanhaji

44'

Chus Puras← Miguel Santos

46'

Jorge Hernández← C. Ljungberg

55'

J. Marenya

55'

J. Marenya

56'

Asier Benito← Tony Gabarre

56'

José Fran← R. del Campo

67'

Andrés Mohedano← Antonio Cotán

73'

R. Merouani← V. De Baunbag

85'

Jesús Tamayo← M. Sanhaji

85'

R. Gibzie← Menudo

90'

Álvaro Muñiz

Langreo

Numancia

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ángel Rodríguez

44'▲Chus Puras←▼Miguel Santos

46'▲Jorge Hernández←▼C. Ljungberg

73'▲R. Merouani←▼V. De Baunbag

Langreo substitutes

PurasHernándezMerouaniBretonesStamboulidisDennisFakirShinFontaine

Manager: Álex Huerta

56'▲Asier Benito←▼Tony Gabarre

56'▲José Fran←▼R. del Campo

67'▲Andrés Mohedano←▼Antonio Cotán

85'▲Jesús Tamayo←▼M. Sanhaji

85'▲R. Gibzie←▼Menudo

Numancia substitutes

BenitoFranMohedanoTamayoGibzieCastroLilloCorralJara