Numancia 0–0 Eldense: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Eldense

5/14/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 36Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Numancia36%

×Draw31%

Eldense33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchEldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.97

Numancia

1.02

Eldense

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.00

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Numancia

1.00

Eldense

0.95

allows per match

Numancia

1.00

Eldense

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Eldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

67%

Numancia or Eldense

69%

Draw or Eldense

64%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

14%

Eldense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

64%

Numancia 2+ goals

27%

Numancia 3+ goals

8%

Eldense 1+ goals

62%

Eldense 2+ goals

25%

Eldense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

52%

Eldense (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Eldense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.00 + Eldense defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Eldense attack 0.95 + Numancia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Numancia scores more

36%

level

31%

Eldense scores more

33%

Numancia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff