Numancia 1–0 Elche: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Elche

Guillermo Fernández 30' (pen)

9/9/2018

Segunda División · Round 4Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Numancia44%

×Draw29%

Elche27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.93

Numancia

1.26

Elche

0.93

Numancia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 86 away

1.24

creates per match

1.07

0.78

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Numancia

1.24

Elche

1.07

allows per match

Numancia

0.78

Elche

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

73%

Numancia or Elche

71%

Draw or Elche

56%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

20%

Elche wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

72%

Numancia 2+ goals

36%

Numancia 3+ goals

13%

Elche 1+ goals

61%

Elche 2+ goals

24%

Elche 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

62%

Elche (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.24 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.26

Elche attack 1.07 + Numancia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Numancia scores more

44%

level

29%

Elche scores more

27%

Numancia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Juan Carlos

Numancia · G

7.9

Match Events

30'

Guillermo FernándezPenalty

41'

Manuel Sanchez

45'

Nino

54'

Fran Villalba← Viguera

59'

Benja← Dani Provencio

64'

Adrian Ripa

65'

Marc Mateu← Alain Oyarzun

67'

Josán Fernández← Borja Giner

80'

Chuca← Javi Flores

89'

Higinio Marín← Guillermo Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NumanciaElche

Overview

49%Possession51%

5Total Shots15

7Corners1

14Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots15

2On Target3

1Off Target9

2Blocked3

1Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

422Total Passes425

325Accurate Passes312

77%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1