Numancia vs Deportivo La Coruna — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 50+ matches
Numancia42%
Deportivo La Coruna29%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Numancia creates 27% more chances
Season form · 50 home / 85 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Numancia ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Numancia at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.76 · 50 matches
Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Numancia attack 1.28 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21
Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Numancia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Numancia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Racing Santander
Malaga
AlmeriaDeportivo La Coruna
Las Palmas
Castellón
Burgos
Eibar
Sporting Gijon
Cordoba
AD Ceuta FC
Albacete
FC Andorra
Granada CF
Real Sociedad II
Leganes
Valladolid
Cadiz
Mirandes
Huesca
Cultural Leonesa
ZaragozaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Numancia host Deportivo La Coruna on Sunday, 5 January 2020 at 11:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Numancia 0 – 1 Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna beat Numancia 1-0 in Segunda División on January 5, 2020.
Goals: M. Somma (54').
Deportivo La Coruna controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 13.
The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in Soria.