Numancia 2–1 Cultural Leonesa: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cultural Leonesa

Unai Medina 79'

Guillermo Fernández 7'

Rodri 83'

6/2/2018

Segunda División · Round 42Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Numancia50%

×Draw26%

Cultural Leonesa24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.96

Numancia

1.50

Cultural Leonesa

0.96

Numancia creates 56% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 25 away

1.29

creates per match

1.16

0.76

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Numancia

1.29

Cultural Leonesa

1.16

allows per match

Numancia

0.76

Cultural Leonesa

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

76%

Numancia or Cultural Leonesa

74%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

50%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

25%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

78%

Numancia 2+ goals

44%

Numancia 3+ goals

19%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

62%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

25%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

67%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.29 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Numancia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Numancia scores more

50%

level

26%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

24%

Numancia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Saúl

Numancia · D

7.3

Match Events

7'

Guillermo Fernández

8'

Rodri

15'

Pere Milla

60'

Thierry Moutinho← Mario Ortiz

65'

Samu← Josep Señé

66'

David García

74'

Unai Medina← Nacho

78'

Higinio Marín← Guillermo Fernández

78'

Guarrotxena← Ángel Bastos

79'

Unai Medina↳ Carlos Gutiérrez

82'

Antonio Martinez Felipe

82'

Dani Calvo← Pere Milla

83'

Rodri↳ E. Buendía

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NumanciaCultural

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots3

3Corners5

17Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots3

8On Target1

4Off Target1

1Blocked1

9Inside Box1

4Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

300Total Passes417

203Accurate Passes311

68%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides7