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Numancia vs Covadonga — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Numancia
Numancia
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Covadonga
Covadonga
3/21/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Numancia67%
×Draw19%
Covadonga14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia
2.27
Covadonga
0.95

Numancia creates 139% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Numancia
2.00
Covadonga
1.15

allows per match

Numancia
0.75
Covadonga
2.54

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Numancia or draw
86%
Numancia or Covadonga
81%
Draw or Covadonga
33%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+
44%
Covadonga wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals
90%
Numancia 2+ goals
66%
Numancia 3+ goals
39%
Covadonga 1+ goals
61%
Covadonga 2+ goals
25%
Covadonga 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)
82%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 2.00 + Covadonga defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.27

Covadonga attack 1.15 + Numancia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Numancia scores more
67%
level
19%
Covadonga scores more
14%

Numancia at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Numancia 5–0 Covadonga

Numancia beat Covadonga 5-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in Soria.