Numancia 1–2 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cornellà

Íñigo Muñoz 85'

Eliseo Falcón 64'

Pere Martínez 28'

5/27/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Numancia46%

×Draw28%

Cornellà26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.92

Numancia

1.33

Cornellà

0.92

Numancia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.00

creates per match

0.84

1.00

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Numancia

1.00

Cornellà

0.84

allows per match

Numancia

1.00

Cornellà

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

74%

Numancia or Cornellà

72%

Draw or Cornellà

54%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

22%

Cornellà wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

74%

Numancia 2+ goals

38%

Numancia 3+ goals

15%

Cornellà 1+ goals

60%

Cornellà 2+ goals

23%

Cornellà 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

64%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.00 + Cornellà defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cornellà attack 0.84 + Numancia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Numancia scores more

46%

level

28%

Cornellà scores more

26%

Numancia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

17'

28'

40'

46'

Adrián Mance← Dani Sánchez

46'

Jesús Carrillo← Jordi Tur

60'

A. Mancebo

61'

Carlos Blanco← Pere Martínez

61'

Gil Muntadas← Rubén Enri

64'

Eliseo Falcón

65'

Julián Mahicas← Toni Arranz

69'

Jesús Tamayo← Arthur

70'

Ramón Folch← Raúl Tavares

70'

Xesc Fullana← Mamor Niang

78'

Antonio Zarzana← Gorka Pérez

78'

M. Traoré← Nahuel Arroyo

85'

Íñigo Muñoz

88'

Nana

Numancia

Cornellà

Anacker

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Pablo Ayuso

46'▲Adrián Mance←▼Dani Sánchez

46'▲Jesús Carrillo←▼Jordi Tur

65'▲Julián Mahicas←▼Toni Arranz

69'▲Jesús Tamayo←▼Arthur

78'▲Antonio Zarzana←▼Gorka Pérez

Numancia substitutes

ManceCarrilloMahicasTamayoZarzanaGarcíaVicarioAmorrortuCotánEmeterioFabriŠimić

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

61'▲Carlos Blanco←▼Pere Martínez

61'▲Gil Muntadas←▼Rubén Enri

70'▲Ramón Folch←▼Raúl Tavares

70'▲Xesc Fullana←▼Mamor Niang

78'▲M. Traoré←▼Nahuel Arroyo

Cornellà substitutes

BlancoMuntadasFolchFullanaTraoréPlanasBobiCanalesVilaplana