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Numancia vs Castellón — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Numancia
Numancia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Castellón
Castellón
3/19/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Numancia37%
×Draw29%
Castellón34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia
1.13
Castellón
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Numancia
1.00
Castellón
1.11

allows per match

Numancia
1.00
Castellón
1.25

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par
Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Castellón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Numancia or draw
66%
Numancia or Castellón
71%
Draw or Castellón
63%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+
15%
Castellón wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals
68%
Numancia 2+ goals
31%
Numancia 3+ goals
11%
Castellón 1+ goals
65%
Castellón 2+ goals
29%
Castellón 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)
52%
Castellón (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.00 + Castellón defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Castellón attack 1.11 + Numancia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Numancia scores more
37%
level
29%
Castellón scores more
34%

Numancia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Numancia vs Castellón

Numancia and Castellón drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in Soria.