Numancia 0–1 Burgos: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burgos

Unai Elgezabal 86'

3/7/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Numancia51%

×Draw28%

Burgos21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.79

Numancia

1.38

Burgos

0.79

Numancia creates 75% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

0.83

0.75

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Numancia

2.00

Burgos

0.83

allows per match

Numancia

0.75

Burgos

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

79%

Numancia or Burgos

72%

Draw or Burgos

49%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

25%

Burgos wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

75%

Numancia 2+ goals

40%

Numancia 3+ goals

16%

Burgos 1+ goals

55%

Burgos 2+ goals

19%

Burgos 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

70%

Burgos (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 2.00 + Burgos defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Burgos attack 0.83 + Numancia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Numancia scores more

51%

level

28%

Burgos scores more

21%

Numancia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

Claudio Medina← Roberto Alarcón

64'

R. del Campo← Andrés Mohedano

79'

Asier Benito← Antonio Cotán

79'

Javi Gómez← Juanma García

84'

José Fran← Diego Aguirre

84'

Aitor Córdoba← Galder Cerrajería

86'

Unai Elgezabal

Numancia

Burgos

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Álex Huerta

64'▲R. del Campo←▼Andrés Mohedano

79'▲Asier Benito←▼Antonio Cotán

84'▲José Fran←▼Diego Aguirre

Numancia substitutes

CampoBenitoFranCastroTamayoLilloGibzieCorralJara

Manager: Julián Calero

61'▲Claudio Medina←▼Roberto Alarcón

79'▲Javi Gómez←▼Juanma García

84'▲Aitor Córdoba←▼Galder Cerrajería

Burgos substitutes

MedinaGómezCórdobaFariaPisculichiLópezLeak