Numancia 2–3 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Amorebieta

Julián Mahicas 90+1'

Rubén Mesa 85'

Eneko Jauregi 24'

Juan Rodríguez 21'

Unai Buján 17'

1/22/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Numancia33%

×Draw31%

Amorebieta36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.04

Numancia

0.99

Amorebieta

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 46 away

1.00

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Numancia

1.00

Amorebieta

1.07

allows per match

Numancia

1.00

Amorebieta

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

64%

Numancia or Amorebieta

69%

Draw or Amorebieta

67%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

12%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

63%

Numancia 2+ goals

26%

Numancia 3+ goals

8%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

65%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

28%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

48%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.00 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Numancia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Numancia scores more

33%

level

31%

Amorebieta scores more

36%

Amorebieta at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

21'

24'

50'

56'

E. Urain← Antonio Jesús

56'

Haritz Albisua← Eneko Jauregi

57'

Arthur← Dani Sánchez

57'

Jaume Pol← Adrián Mance

59'

Toni Arranz

60'

J. Rodriguez

65'

Julián Mahicas← Toni Arranz

66'

M. Pradera

72'

R. Rodriguez

77'

J. Carrillo

78'

Jorge Valín← M. Šimić

78'

Mario Barco← Antonio Zarzana

81'

Josué Dorrio← Unai Buján

81'

Julen Jon Guerrero← Rayco Rodríguez

85'

89'

89'

90+1'

Numancia

Amorebieta

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Buján

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Iñaki Bea

57'▲Arthur←▼Dani Sánchez

57'▲Jaume Pol←▼Adrián Mance

65'▲Julián Mahicas←▼Toni Arranz

78'▲Jorge Valín←▼M. Šimić

78'▲Mario Barco←▼Antonio Zarzana

Numancia substitutes

ArthurPolMahicasValínBarcoRománGilSanhajiVicario

Manager: Haritz Mújika

56'▲E. Urain←▼Antonio Jesús

56'▲Haritz Albisua←▼Eneko Jauregi

81'▲Josué Dorrio←▼Unai Buján

81'▲Julen Jon Guerrero←▼Rayco Rodríguez

Amorebieta substitutes

UrainAlbisuaDorrioGuerreroIturraspeSeguínPraderaMarinoLópezEtxeita

Match Recap: Numancia vs Amorebieta

Amorebieta beat Numancia 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 22, 2023.

Goals: Unai Buján (17'), Juan Rodríguez (21'), Eneko Jauregi (24'), Rubén Mesa (85'), Julián Mahicas (90+1').

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in Soria.

Numancia vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Numancia vs Amorebieta