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Numancia II vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Numancia II
Numancia II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real Burgos
Real Burgos
2/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 11Ciudad Deportiva Francisco Rubio Garcés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Numancia II51%
×Draw24%
Real Burgos25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia II
1.71
Real Burgos
1.13

Numancia II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 30 away

creates per match

Numancia II
1.53
Real Burgos
1.00

allows per match

Numancia II
1.25
Real Burgos
1.90

finishing

Numancia II+0.00on par
Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia II ↓

Real Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Numancia II or draw
75%
Numancia II or Real Burgos
76%
Draw or Real Burgos
49%

Winning margin

Numancia II wins by 2+
27%
Real Burgos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Numancia II 1+ goals
82%
Numancia II 2+ goals
51%
Numancia II 3+ goals
24%
Real Burgos 1+ goals
68%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
31%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Numancia II (draw refunded)
67%
Real Burgos (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia II attack 1.53 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Numancia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Numancia II scores more
51%
level
24%
Real Burgos scores more
25%

Numancia II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Numancia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Numancia II vs Real Burgos

Numancia II beat Real Burgos 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 3, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Francisco Rubio Garcés in Soria.