Nueva Esparta 0–1 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

Nueva Esparta

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

4/6/2024

Segunda División · Apertura - 4Estadio Dynamo La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nueva Esparta42%

×Draw28%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nueva EspartaExpected goals in this matchDinamo de Puerto La Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.01

Nueva Esparta

1.26

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.01

Nueva Esparta creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 84 away

1.13

creates per match

0.99

1.03

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Nueva Esparta

1.13

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

0.99

allows per match

Nueva Esparta

1.03

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nueva Esparta ↓

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nueva Esparta or draw

70%

Nueva Esparta or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

72%

Draw or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

58%

Winning margin

Nueva Esparta wins by 2+

19%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nueva Esparta 1+ goals

72%

Nueva Esparta 2+ goals

36%

Nueva Esparta 3+ goals

13%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals

64%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals

27%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nueva Esparta at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nueva Esparta attack 1.13 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 0.99 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nueva Esparta scores more

42%

level

28%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more

30%

Nueva Esparta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nueva Esparta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff