Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nueva Esparta vs Angostura FC — Segunda División 2018

Nueva Esparta
Nueva Esparta
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
8/13/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 18Estadio Dynamo La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nueva Esparta40%
×Draw29%
Angostura FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nueva Esparta
1.21
Angostura FC
1.04

Nueva Esparta creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 74 away

creates per match

Nueva Esparta
1.13
Angostura FC
1.05

allows per match

Nueva Esparta
1.03
Angostura FC
1.28

finishing

Nueva Esparta+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nueva Esparta ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nueva Esparta or draw
69%
Nueva Esparta or Angostura FC
71%
Draw or Angostura FC
60%

Winning margin

Nueva Esparta wins by 2+
17%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nueva Esparta 1+ goals
70%
Nueva Esparta 2+ goals
34%
Nueva Esparta 3+ goals
12%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
65%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
28%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)
56%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nueva Esparta at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nueva Esparta attack 1.13 + Angostura FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Angostura FC attack 1.05 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nueva Esparta scores more
40%
level
29%
Angostura FC scores more
31%

Nueva Esparta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nueva Esparta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nueva Esparta vs Angostura FC

Angostura FC beat Nueva Esparta 2-0 in Segunda División on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Dynamo La Victoria in Nueva Esparta.