Nueva Chicago vs Atletico DE Rafaela — Primera Nacional 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 110+ matches
Nueva Chicago43%
Atletico DE Rafaela26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Nueva Chicago creates 40% more chances
Season form · 129 home / 110 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Nueva Chicago ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Nueva Chicago at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 129 matches
Atletico DE Rafaela away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Nueva Chicago attack 1.10 + Atletico DE Rafaela defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16
Atletico DE Rafaela attack 0.76 + Nueva Chicago defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Nueva Chicago at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Nueva Chicago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Sarmiento Junin
Arsenal SarandiNueva Chicago
Almagro
Platense
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Gimnasia M.
Independ. Rivadavia
Brown DE Adrogue
Ferro Carril Oeste
Atletico Mitre
Agropecuario
Villa Dalmine
Temperley
Deportivo Moron
Defensores De BelgranoAtletico DE Rafaela
Quilmes
Gimnasia Jujuy
Guillermo Brown
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Instituto Cordoba
Santamarina
Chacarita Juniors
Los AndesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Nueva Chicago host Atletico DE Rafaela on Friday, 1 March 2024 at 20:00. The match is part of the Primera Nacional 2026/2027 season.
Primera Nacional: Nueva Chicago 2–0 Atletico DE Rafaela
Nueva Chicago beat Atletico DE Rafaela 2-0 in Primera Nacional on March 1, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio República de Mataderos in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.