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Nublense vs U. Catolica — Primera División 2018

Nublense
Nublense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
3/1/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 5Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Nublense38%
×Draw26%
U. Catolica36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nublense
1.32
U. Catolica
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 129 away

creates per match

Nublense
1.46
U. Catolica
1.50

allows per match

Nublense
1.08
U. Catolica
1.19

finishing

Nublense+0.00on par
U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

U. Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nublense or draw
64%
Nublense or U. Catolica
74%
Draw or U. Catolica
62%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+
17%
U. Catolica wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals
73%
Nublense 2+ goals
38%
Nublense 3+ goals
15%
U. Catolica 1+ goals
72%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
37%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)
51%
U. Catolica (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 84 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 1.46 + U. Catolica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

U. Catolica attack 1.50 + Nublense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nublense scores more
38%
level
26%
U. Catolica scores more
36%

Nublense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nublense vs U. Catolica

U. Catolica beat Nublense 2-1 in Primera División on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas in Chillan.