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Nublense vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Nublense
Nublense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quitoadvanced
P. Guerrero 60'
8/4/2023CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nublense30%
×Draw37%
LDU de Quito33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nublense
0.73
LDU de Quito
0.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Nublense
0.00
LDU de Quito
1.23

allows per match

Nublense
0.33
LDU de Quito
1.46

finishing

Nublense+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Nublense or draw
67%
Nublense or LDU de Quito
63%
Draw or LDU de Quito
70%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+
9%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals
52%
Nublense 2+ goals
17%
Nublense 3+ goals
4%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
54%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
18%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)
48%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 0.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 0.00 + LDU de Quito defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 0.73

LDU de Quito attack 1.23 + Nublense defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Nublense scores more
30%
level
37%
LDU de Quito scores more
33%

LDU de Quito at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
J. QuinteroLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · D
8.2

Match Events

38'
Ricardo Adé
46'
M. Rivera← S. Dittborn
54'
Rafael Caroca
55'
B. Oyarzo← R. Rebolledo
60'
P. Guerrero↳ J. Quintero
65'
P. Aránguiz← I. Sosa
81'
J. Valverde← M. Martínez
82'
A. Valdés← J. Leiva
87'
Sebastián González
89'
J. Angulo← P. Guerrero
89'
W. Chalá← A. Alvarado
90+6'
Alexander Domínguez

Possession

52%Nublense

Shots

8Nublense

Pass accuracy

50%Nublense

Statistics

NublenseLDU
Overview
52%Possession48%
8Total Shots16
2Corners2
14Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots16
0On Target4
5Off Target9
3Blocked3
5Inside Box6
3Outside Box10
Passing
52%Possession48%
482Total Passes443
369Accurate Passes340
77%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Nublense 0–1 LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat Nublense 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 4, 2023.

Goals: P. Guerrero (60').

Nublense controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.