Nublense 0–1 Huachipato: Result & Stats

Nublense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Huachipato

12/3/2023

Primera División · Round 29Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Nublense47%

×Draw26%

Huachipato27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NublenseExpected goals in this matchHuachipato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.08

Nublense

1.52

Huachipato

1.08

Nublense creates 41% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 128 away

1.46

creates per match

1.09

1.08

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Nublense

1.46

Huachipato

1.09

allows per match

Nublense

1.08

Huachipato

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nublense+0.00on par

Huachipato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

Huachipato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nublense or draw

73%

Nublense or Huachipato

74%

Draw or Huachipato

53%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+

24%

Huachipato wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals

78%

Nublense 2+ goals

45%

Nublense 3+ goals

20%

Huachipato 1+ goals

66%

Huachipato 2+ goals

29%

Huachipato 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)

64%

Huachipato (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 84 matches

Huachipato away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.59 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 1.46 + Huachipato defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Huachipato attack 1.09 + Nublense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nublense scores more

47%

level

26%

Huachipato scores more

27%

Nublense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff